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| CME Group Wood Pulp Futures
Prices, USD/ton |
| Mar 9, 2010 | 3 mth | 6 mth | 12 mth | 18 mth | 24 mth |
| NBSK | 930 | 904 | 849 | 830 | 820 |
| BHKP | 795 | 775 | 725 | 710 | 710 |
| Click for Forwards chart |
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LATEST PIX INDEX VALUES WITH COMMENTS
Conversions from USD to EUR (new in NBSKP) and from EUR to USD and USD to EUR
in BHKP have been made with the ECB rate of the Friday preceding
the publication of the indexes.
Please note! FOEX Indexes Ltd. has
registered the PIX benchmark/PIX index trade-marks. Thus any commercial use of the PIX indexes,
be it through financial institutions, brokers or bilateral or internal deals
between e.g. pulp and paper companies, is subject to permission
by trade-mark rights owner FOEX Indexes Ltd. Please contact
us for further information.
Market Comments March 9, 2010
FOEX Indexes Ltd has launched a new monthly price index for industrial wood pellets
for the Nordic market, PIX Pellet Nordic CIF. The new benchmark will be
published every third Tuesday of the month on the PIX BIOENERGY home page, please click on the navigation bar to the left. Please click for PRESS RELEASE.
(Nov 12)
US
NBSK pulp –
The supply shock from the Chilean volume losses hits also the US market
both directly and indirectly. Market tightness and higher pulp prices prompt
further pulp mill re-starts. Most producers have separately announced price
increases by 30 USD per ton for March business and the prices quoted for
apparently very limited spot lots are up more. The PIX US NBSK index moved up by
24.77 dollars, or by 2.83%, and closed at precisely 900.00 USD/ton. (Mar 9)
US
Newsprint – For
the first time since a long time, the North American newsprint shipments,
including exports, grew in January against the soft numbers from a year ago. US
domestic shipments were still down, however, even if less than in late 2009.
Price increase attempts continue as paper producers seek to regain profitability
and as fibre costs are on a rise. The outcome of the pricing initiatives has not
been the one desired, at least for the time being. Both benchmarks retreatied
from last week's values. The PIX US Newsprint 30lb benchmark dipped by 3.77
dollars, or 0.70%, to 536.99 USD/ton, while the 27lb benchmark moved back down
by 3.93 dollars, or 0.68%, to 572.50 USD/ton. (Mar
9)
General
economy:
USA
– The labour market
numbers were better than expected in February even if the unemployment rate
remained at 9.7%. But only 36 000 jobs were lost, against the over 650 000 loss
in February -09. This boosted hopes that the recession is truly over. The
fiscal future also looks very bleak. The Fed is, however, sufficiently
confident of the growth to have initiated some measures of monetary tightening.
Furthermore, most economists now believe the Fed will raise the benchmark
interest rates before the end of September.
Europe
–
The fiscal strains in Europe continue to mount. The years of currency
overvaluation is taking its toll both on the European growth in general and on
the relationships between the EU-member states. The Union is planning to create
a rescue fund in order to find a way to ease the problems of Greece, Spain and
other members with huge budget deficits and to attain a closer economic
co-operation.
Japan
– Even if the real
economic growth has improved, it is virtually all based on two things: exports,
driven by China's growing demand and the acceleration of the deflation. The
nominal growth was less than one percent in Q4 2009 whilst the real growth hit
4.5%. The weakening of the Yen would be a blessing but this would require a
revaluation of the Chinese Yuan which the world has been waiting for a long
time already, in vain.
China
– The economy continues
to overheat. The strong stimulation efforts have definitely helped the economic
growth but are now leading to a rapid rise in inflation pressures. Consumer
prices rose almost 2% in December and another 1.5% in January. A further
tightening of the reserve requirements is expected. And, the external as well
as internal pressures to devalue the currency continue. (Mar
9)
Paper
industry
–
As in the famous Western,
there is a bit of everything, the good, the bad and the ugly. The good news is
that the rapid demand decline in the western world is coming to an end. The bad
news is that in Europe, declines against 2008 continued to the end of 2009, even
if at a receding rate. With the decline in demand and with substantial
over-capacity, printing and writing paper prices have fallen or, at best,
remained flat. In packaging, the situation is better, even if not good. The ugly
items are several. The fibre prices vs. paper price ratios approach nearly
record-tight levels. For Finns, the strikes first by the transportation workers
and now by the stevedores have started stopping paper mills. The competitors do
not mind, of course. Finally, the US authorities have levied countervailing
duties on Chinese and Indonesian importers of coated paper. (Mar
9)
NBSK
pulp Europe
-
Pulp markets continue to be extremely tight due to
continuing disruptions in the supply in several pulp producing regions and due
to some pick-up of global paper demand, although from the drastically lower
levels than before the economic downturn. Pulp supplies are again hurt by the
terrible earthquake in Chile on last Saturday but its magnitude is still
completely unknown. Producers of all major pulp grades are out with price
increases for March, in BSKP mostly by 30 USD per ton. The USD weakened last
week by 0.4% against the Euro. The PIX NBSK index moved up by 6.13 dollars, or
0.72%, and closed at 855.82 USD/ton. With the slightly weaker dollar, the
EUR-price index rose by 2.15 euro, or 0.34%, to 630.67 EUR/ton.-
The combined impact of the Finnish strikes and the closure of the Chilean pulp
mills and export ports after the devastating earthquake, centred near the major
pulp producing units, has considerably tightened the supply of market pulp in
early March. Without paper from Finland entering the markets, paper mills
elsewhere can run better but need more pulp to do so. Producers of all major
pulp grades were already out with price increases for March, in NBSKP, mostly by
30 USD per ton. The USD weakened last week by 0.1% against the Euro. The PIX
NBSK index moved up by 19.8 dollars, or 2.31%, and closed at 875.62 USD/ton.
With the marginally weaker dollar, the EUR-price index rose by 14.02 euro, or
2.22%, to 644.69 EUR/ton. (Mar 9)
BHK
pulp Europe
–
While
Chile has slightly more softwood than hardwood market pulp production, the
market BHKP volumes approach 2 million tpa. Also Finland's birch pulp
export volumes, mainly captive sales, are rather significant. Hardwood pulp
producers announced price hikes of typically 30 USD in the Western European
market. USD weakened against EUR by 0.1%. With this minor weakening, the PIX
BHKP index in Euro rose by 13.42 Euro, or by 2.4%, and closed at 572.16 EUR/ton.
The PIX BHKP index in USD rose by 18.9 dollars, or by 2.49%, to 777.11 USD/ton. (Mar
9)
BHK
pulp China
-
Before the Chilean earthquake, the BEKP
producers were typically quoting for a 30 USD/ton increase for their BHKP sales
to China. After the severity of the supply constraints became more obvious, some
of the traders appear to be ready to buy more than their normal volumes. The
approaching start-up of the new, large, Rizhao mill and of a couple of bamboo
pulp lines will add domestic supply of pulp to the market soon. BHKP suppliers
came out in the end of February with mostly 30 USD per ton increase attempts for
March. There have been some spot volumes offered at clearly bigger increases
during last week. The PIX BHKP China index moved up by 12.29 dollars, or by
1.7%, and closed at 735.15 USD/ton. Converting this to the Chinese currency
meant an increase of 84.28 RMB, or 1.71%, to 5018.53 RMB/ton. (Mar
9)
Newsprint
Europe
– Demand continued to sink in January on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean but the
retreats were clearly smaller than hereto. Even though the cost of fibre, be it
wood, RCP or woodpulp, is up in Europe from the 2nd half 2009 levels, the
over-capacity problem and the wide price differentials in 2009 between the US
and European price on one hand and between the UK and Continental prices on the
other hand, led to a major drop in the newsprint prices in the December-February
negotiations. The exports from Europe to outside areas have been growing in
recent months. The roughly 0.8% strengthening of the EUR against a weighted
basket of non-EMU currencies exerted a down-pull on the benchmark. The PIX
Newsprint index retreated by 4.11 Euro, or by 0.93%, to 437.28 EUR/ton. (Mar
9)
LWC
Europe
–
After
the 22% drop in the European estimated demand in 2009 against 2008, the small
one percent gain seen in January in the European shipments of coated
woodcontaining grades and 20% increase in exports are a consolation. But it is a
small consolation only as many of the paper price contracts have been agreed at
clearly below the 2009 level whilst pulp and/or other fibre costs are rising. A
downward pull was also evident by the approximately 0.8% strengthening of the
EUR against the weighted basket of non-EMU currencies. The PIX LWC index lost
4.38 Euro, or 0.7%, and landed at 633.28 EUR/ton. (Mar
9)
Coated
woodfree
Europe
– Although
the exports showed a sizable gain in January against January 2009, the regional
demand and even the total shipments still fell in December. The January data is
not yet available. The anti-dumping charges against the Chinese and Indonesian
paper may slow down the Chinese flow of paper very soon. That would
automatically support the sales volumes and the announced price increase
attempts within Europe. A strengthening of about 0.8% of the EUR against other
European currencies had a negative impact on the benchmark. Thus, the PIX Ctd
woodfree benchmark moved down by 4.08 Euro, or by 0.62%, to 652.39 EUR/ton. (Mar
9)
Uncoated
woodfree
Europe –
In spite of
the entry of the new large Portuguese volume, uncoated
woodfree market has remained more stable than that for the coated grades.
Efforts to increase prices, both in North America as well as in Europe, have
been intensified with the pulp price hikes and further hike possibilities after
the major pulp supply losses and delivery suspensions. The aforementioned
strengthening of the EUR against a basket of non-EMU currencies brought a
down-pull effect to the benchmark. The PIX A4 B-copy index moved south by 2.91
Euro, or 0.38%, to 766.70 EUR/ton. (Mar
9)
Containerboard
Europe –
In
the US, while the domestic corrugated box volumes were down in January by 4%,
the use of containerboard was up almost 9% in January year-over-year and exports
appear to have risen again after a large increase in December. Most major
producers have announced price hikes for April. In Europe, another 60 EUR/ton
price hike has been announced separately by several major producers from April 1
for Kraftliner. White-top liner producers came out earlier with 50 EUR (and 50
GBP) increase announcements from March. Last week the exchange rate movements
affected our indices negatively as Euro strengthened by 0.8% against the non-EMU
currency basket. Against USD, Euro strengthened also but by just 0.1%. The PIX
Kraftliner index moved up by 2.91 Euro, or 0.66%, to 441.69 EUR/ton. In the PIX
White-top Kraftliner index, price increase efforts did not show, at least not
yet, as the benchmark lost 1.48 Euro, or 0.23%, and closed at 631.52 EUR/ton.
The PIX Testliner 2 index headed higher by 5.3 Euro, or 1.51%, to 355.55
EUR/ton. The PIX Testliner 3 index moved up by 5.14 Euro, or by 1.55%, to 336.72
EUR/ton, and the PIX RB Fluting index value increased by 5.65 Euro, or 1.78%, to
322.75 EUR/ton. (Mar 9)
Recovered
Paper
Europe -
The
recovered paper demand pull from China continues and also the regional demand in
Europe has started to improve, at least for the brown grades. The losses of UKP
market pulp from Chile are likely to increase the demand for OCC further.
Already now the lack of RCP raw material is about to restrict paper production.
Both our benchmarks continued their way up, this time more substantially than
last week: the PIX OCC 1.04 dd benchmark headed higher by 4.04 Euro, or 4.32%,
closing at 97.47 EUR/ton. The differential to Testliner 2 widened by 1.26 Euro
to 258.08 EUR/ton and to Testliner 3 it increased by 1.1 Euro to 239.25 EUR/ton.
The gap to RB Fluting widened by 1.61 Euro to 225.28 EUR/ton. The PIX ONP/OMG
1.11 dd benchmark gained 2.97 Euro, or 2.8%, to 109.60 EUR/ton, and the
difference to the Newsprint index narrowed again, this time by 7.08 Euro to
327.68 EUR/ton. (Mar 9)
Global
chemical paper grade market pulp shipments in January/10 were 3.301 million tons,
down by 4.9% from December/09 but up by 12.7% from January/09, at the delivery rate of
86% of the P.M.C.
Inventories at the
end of January/10 stood at 30 days, up by three days from the level in
December/09. Source PPPC. (Feb 24)
Utipulp European pulp
consumer January/10 figures; inventories 732 900 tons, down by 29 200 tons or
3.8% from December/09, in days at 23 days
of consumption, a decrease by one day from December/09, and down by 190 500 tons or
20.6% from January/09. In days of consumption the stocks were lower by two days
from a year ago. Consumption in January/10 totalled 1 040 800 tons,
an increase by 87 900 tons or 9.2% from December/09, and an increase by 36
200
tons or 3.6%
from January/09. Source: Utipulp (Feb 22)
Pulp inventories at European ports increased in January/10 by
12 800 tons or 1.7% to 775 300 tons compared to December/09 inventories of 762 400 tons.
Compared to January/09 the port inventories were lower in 2010 by 949 400 tons or by
55%. Source: Europulp (Feb 16)
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